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Climate Change Impacts on African Agriculture
July 12, 2000

Many scientists, economists and policy makers now agree that the world is facing a threat from climate warming. The degree of the impact and its distribution is still debated. The current evidence suggests that countries in temperate and polar locations may benefit from small economic advantages because additional warming will benefit their agricultural sectors. Many countries in tropical and sub-tropical regions are expected to be more vulnerable to warming because addi-tional warming will affect their marginal water balance and harm their agricultural sectors. However, little research has been done on tropical countries, so that little is known about the extent of these damages. The problem is expected to be most severe in Africa where current information is the poorest, technological change has been the slowest, and the domestic economies depend the most heavily on agriculture. African farmers have adapted to a certain amount of climate variability, but climate change may well force large regions of marginal agriculture out of production in Africa.

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Targeted Research Proposal: Impacts on and Adaptation of Agro-Ecological Systems in Africa
Title: Climate, Water and Agriculture: Impacts on and Adaptation of Agro-Ecological Systems in Africa

Project Objectives: Agriculture and agro-ecological systems are the most vulnerable and important sectors in African countries. They are especially vulnerable because the climates of many of these countries are already too hot. Further warming is consequently expected to reduce crop productivity adversely. Agriculture and agro-ecological systems are especially prominent in the economies of African
countries, and therefore these countries have a special interest in the project. Using sample countries from the African continent, the targeted research will provide both national and regional understanding on the nature of the impact of climate change on the agricultural sector and possible adaptation. The main goal of the project is to develop multipliable analytical methods and procedures for assessing the impact of climate change on agriculture in Africa, to estimate how climate affects the current agricultural systems, and to project how climate
change might affect this system in the future.

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